📊 支付宝基金定投三维分析报告

分析日期 2026-06-22 · 风险档 平衡型 · 月度预算 3000 元 · 基金数 3 · 含深度研究
本报告仅用于研究和投资教育，不构成投资建议、收益承诺或支付宝操作指令。基金有亏损风险，QDII 还涉及汇率、额度和海外市场风险。
分析日期
2026-06-22
训练窗口
2026-01-01 ~ 2026-04-30
验证窗口
2026-05-01 ~ 2026-05-31
最新窗口
2026-06-01 ~ 2026-06-22
风险档
balanced
基准
000300
月度预算
3000.0
滚动验证
启用

📊 组合评分总览

73开始或继续定投
72.5
000311 景顺长城沪深300指
可开始或继续定投
70开始或继续定投
70.3
050025 博时标普500ETF
可开始或继续定投
64开始或继续定投
64.0
000478 建信中证500指数增
可开始或继续定投

💰 预算分配

000311 景顺长城沪深30 (1110元)
36.9%
050025 博时标普500E (1040元)
34.7%
000478 建信中证500指 (850元)
28.5%
本期共分析 3 只基金。其中 3 只评分≥60（建议定投），0 只处于45-60观察区间，0 只评分偏低建议谨慎。评分最高的是000311 景顺长城沪深300指数增强A（72.5分），动作建议为「可开始或继续定投」。组合平均相关系数为nan，处于中等水平，具备一定的分散化效果。
🤖
维度① ML机器学习
LSTM/GRU 模型双周期推理
月度 + 周度上涨概率
本期共 3 只基金启用了ML机器学习推理。000311 景顺长城沪深300指数增强A：LSTM-NumPy-Dual模型预测月度上涨概率48%、周度上涨概率49%，整体方向偏空，验证准确率53%，ML调整-0.0分。050025 博时标普500ETF联接A：LSTM-NumPy-Dual模型预测月度上涨概率51%、周度上涨概率52%，整体方向偏多，验证准确率53%，ML调整+0.0分。000478 建信中证500指数增强A：LSTM-NumPy-Dual模型预测月度上涨概率51%、周度上涨概率50%，整体方向偏多，验证准确率53%，ML调整+0.0分。
000311 景顺长城沪深300指数增强A评分 72.5
LSTM-NumPy-Dualnumpy_lstm_dual_horizon验证准确率 53%框架: numpy
48%月49%周
月度上涨概率
48.0%
周度上涨概率
48.7%
月度调整
-0.0
周度调整
-0.0
综合ML调整
-0.0
综合概率
48.3%
ML对评分贡献
-0.0
050025 博时标普500ETF联接A评分 70.3
LSTM-NumPy-Dualnumpy_lstm_dual_horizon验证准确率 53%框架: numpy
51%月52%周
月度上涨概率
51.4%
周度上涨概率
52.1%
月度调整
+0.0
周度调整
+0.0
综合ML调整
+0.0
综合概率
51.8%
ML对评分贡献
+0.0
000478 建信中证500指数增强A评分 64.0
LSTM-NumPy-Dualnumpy_lstm_dual_horizon验证准确率 53%框架: numpy
51%月50%周
月度上涨概率
51.5%
周度上涨概率
49.5%
月度调整
+0.0
周度调整
-0.0
综合ML调整
+0.0
综合概率
50.5%
ML对评分贡献
+0.0
📐
维度② 统计学分析
风险指标 · 基准对比
滚动回测 · 组合相关性
000311 景顺长城沪深300指数增强A：Sharpe 0.90处于中等水平，相对基准跑出正Alpha。050025 博时标普500ETF联接A：Sharpe 0.42处于中等水平，相对基准跑出正Alpha。000478 建信中证500指数增强A：Sharpe 1.12表明风险调整后收益优秀，下行风险控制较好，最大回撤-12.4%需关注，相对基准跑出正Alpha。

📈 风险调整指标对比

Sharpe 比率

000311 景顺长城沪深
0.9%
050025 博时标普50
0.4%
000478 建信中证50
1.1%

Sortino 比率

000311 景顺长城沪深
1.3%
050025 博时标普50
0.7%
000478 建信中证50
1.5%

Calmar 比率

000311 景顺长城沪深
2.3%
050025 博时标普50
0.9%
000478 建信中证50
2.3%

VaR / CVaR 极端风险

基金代码基金名称VaR(95%)CVaR(95%)年化波动率最大回撤
000311景顺长城沪深300指数增-1.32%-2.25%15.88%-7.34%
050025博时标普500ETF联接-1.45%-1.63%13.86%-9.57%
000478建信中证500指数增强A-1.92%-3.54%22.68%-12.40%

🎯 基准对比分析

基金代码Beta年化AlphaTreynor信息比率跟踪误差上行捕获下行捕获R²
0003110.0715.89%2.020.2320.14%0.19-0.010.00
050025-0.018.04%-9.060.8751.77%-0.02-0.040.00
000478-0.1024.05%-2.572.2430.33%-0.10-0.280.01
颜色说明：🟢 正向/优势 · 🔴 负向/劣势 · ⬜ 中性。Beta>1.2波动放大，Alpha>0跑赢基准，IR>0.3主动管理有效。

🔄 滚动回测验证

000311 景顺长城沪深300指 — 24个月窗口

方向命中率 (41.7%)
41.7%
风险区间覆盖率 (79.2%)
79.2%
平均绝对误差: 4.39%
分数调整: -4.0
最差窗口: 2024-10-01~2024-10-31 实际-8.00% vs 预测18.42%

050025 博时标普500ETF — 24个月窗口

方向命中率 (54.2%)
54.2%
风险区间覆盖率 (87.5%)
87.5%
平均绝对误差: 2.36%
分数调整: +1.0
最差窗口: 2026-04-01~2026-04-30 实际8.65% vs 预测-1.32%

000478 建信中证500指数增 — 24个月窗口

方向命中率 (33.3%)
33.3%
风险区间覆盖率 (79.2%)
79.2%
平均绝对误差: 5.73%
分数调整: -4.0
最差窗口: 2024-10-01~2024-10-31 实际-5.76% vs 预测17.82%

🔗 组合相关性分析

平均相关系数
nan
组合波动率
N/A
个基平均波动
17.47%
基金数量
3

相关性热力图

000311050025000478
0003111.00nannan
050025nan1.00nan
000478nannan1.00
热力图颜色：🔴 正相关（同涨同跌）· 🔵 负相关（对冲）· 深色低关联。对角线为自相关1.00。

📋 单基金统计详情

000311 景顺长城沪深300指数增强A✅ 可开始或继续定投
指数型-股票开放申购费率0.12%数据: akshare:fund_open_fund_info_em
训练期收益
4.78%
验证期收益
1.05%
最新收益
4.73%
年化波动率
15.88%
最大回撤
-7.34%
预测30日
1.82%
预测90日
5.57%
方向/置信度
positive/low
30日区间
-3.45% ~ 7.09%

评分分解

收益分
61.5
预测分
66.4
风险分
71.1
RAP分
72.4
趋势分
49.3
ML调整
-0.0
基准调整
+6.9
滚动调整
-4.0
验证调整
+2.0
最终评分
72.5
  • 训练期收益为4.78%。
  • 最新窗口收益为4.73%。
  • 统计预测30日方向偏正，区间-3.45%至7.09%。
  • 验证月方向命中，模型短期方向有效性略加分。
  • 相对基准 beta=0.07，波动较小。
  • 年化 alpha=15.89%，跑赢基准。
  • 未识别到突出单项风险，但仍需承担市场波动。
  • 滚动验证方向命中率偏弱：41.67%。
050025 博时标普500ETF联接A✅ 可开始或继续定投
指数型-海外股票暂停申购费率0.12%数据: akshare:fund_open_fund_info_em
训练期收益
2.23%
验证期收益
2.26%
最新收益
-1.31%
年化波动率
13.86%
最大回撤
-9.57%
预测30日
2.00%
预测90日
6.12%
方向/置信度
positive/low
30日区间
-2.60% ~ 6.60%

评分分解

收益分
55.4
预测分
68.0
风险分
72.0
RAP分
60.4
趋势分
40.0
ML调整
+0.0
基准调整
+8.0
滚动调整
+1.0
验证调整
+2.0
最终评分
70.3
  • 训练期收益为2.23%。
  • 统计预测30日方向偏正，区间-2.60%至6.60%。
  • 验证月方向命中，模型短期方向有效性略加分。
  • 相对基准 beta=-0.01，波动较小。
  • 年化 alpha=8.04%，跑赢基准。
  • 信息比率 IR=0.87，主动管理有效。
  • 滚动验证平均绝对误差较低：2.36%。
  • 最新窗口收益为-1.31%。
  • 当前申购状态为暂停申购。
000478 建信中证500指数增强A✅ 可开始或继续定投
指数型-股票开放申购费率0.15%数据: akshare:fund_open_fund_info_em
训练期收益
7.97%
验证期收益
-1.92%
最新收益
6.36%
年化波动率
22.68%
最大回撤
-12.40%
预测30日
1.70%
预测90日
5.17%
方向/置信度
positive/low
30日区间
-5.83% ~ 9.22%

评分分解

收益分
69.1
预测分
65.3
风险分
56.1
RAP分
78.1
趋势分
44.4
ML调整
+0.0
基准调整
+8.0
滚动调整
-4.0
验证调整
-6.0
最终评分
64.0
  • 训练期收益为7.97%。
  • 最新窗口收益为6.36%。
  • Sharpe 比率1.12，风险调整后收益较好。
  • Sortino 比率1.54，下行风险控制较好。
  • 统计预测30日方向偏正，区间-5.83%至9.22%。
  • 相对基准 beta=-0.10，波动较小。
  • 训练期最大回撤-12.40%。
  • 验证月方向未命中，降低预测置信度。
  • 滚动验证方向命中率偏弱：33.33%。
🔬
维度③ 深度研究
smart-search 证据包
候选来源 · 已抓取页面
本期深度研究共收集0个候选URL，成功抓取0个页面，执行0条命令。

📝 其他研究内容

研究领域

- **宏观流动性和利率**: `截至 2026-06-23，中国央行货币政策 LPR MLF利率 流动性投放 A股资金面 北向资金 2026` - **A股宽基估值和资金面**: `截至 2026-06-23，沪深300 中证500 估值PE PB 历史分位 安全边际 2026` - **海外市场和QDII额度限购**: `截至 2026-06-23，QDII基金额度 限购 美股标普500 纳斯达克100 走势 2026` - **人民币汇率和美元资产风险**: `截至 2026-06-23，人民币汇率 美元指数 美联储利率 外汇风险 2026` - **基金公告申购状态费率经理变化**: `截至 2026-06-23，基金代码：000311, 050025, 000478 基金公告 申购状态 费率调整 基金经理变更 分红` - **相关行业或指数成分趋势**: `截至 2026-06-23，新能源汽车 半导体 消费 医药 行业景气度 政策扶持 2026`

搜索发现摘要

### 海外市场和QDII额度限购 (search) **查询**: `截至 2026-06-23，QDII基金额度 限购 美股标普500 纳斯达克100 走势 2026` **内容摘要**: **截至2026年6月23日，QDII额度持续紧张，美股标普500与纳斯达克100相关QDII基金大多严格限购或暂停申购。美股2026上半年表现强劲，纳斯达克100显著跑赢标普500，主要受AI与科技股驱动，但估值较高且波动加大。**[[1]](https://stock.10jqka.com.cn/20260602/c677154622.shtml)[[2]](https://finance.caixin.com/2026-06-03/102450714.html) ### 1. 美股标普500与纳斯达克100 2026年走势（YTD至6月中下旬） - **标普500 (S&P 500)**：YTD总回报约9.2%–11%（价格回报约9.16%，含股息更高），当前指数约7473点（6月22日收盘7472.79，下跌0.37%）。年内高点约7621点（6月初），曾于1月突破7000点。2026上半年整体上涨，4月出现强劲反弹（单月涨幅显著），但经历地缘政治、通胀、利率预期等波动，部分月份回调。过去一年回报约25%，52周范围约5943–7621点。AI与科技权重股是主要推动力，市场广... **来源URL**: - https://stock.10jqka.com.cn/20260602/c677154622.shtml - https://finance.caixin.com/2026-06-03/102450714.html - https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500/returns/ytd - https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx - https://www.chase.com/personal/investments/learning-and-insights/article/stock-market-returns-may-2026 ### 人民币汇率和美元资产风险 (search) **查询**: `截至 2026-06-23，人民币汇率 美元指数 美联储利率 外汇风险 2026` **内容摘要**: **截至2026年6月23日主要指标总结（实时数据汇总）**[[1]](https://tradingeconomics.com/china/currency)[[2]](http://www.chinamoney.com.cn/english/hombtbrrthdt/) **人民币汇率 (USD/CNY)**: 约 **6.77–6.79**。 - CFETS参考汇率约为6.7746–6.7778（6月23日）。 - 市场报价多在6.776–6.79区间（Trading Economics报约6.785–6.79，当日小幅走弱约0.1–0.17%）。[[3]](https://wise.com/us/currency-converter/usd-to-cny-rate/history)[[4]](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CNY%3DX/history/) - 2026年至今平均约6.87，最低触及约6.756–6.757（6月中旬），较年初约6.9–7.0附近有所升值（人民币温和走强）。过去12个月人民币对美元升值约5.25%。... **来源URL**: - https://tradingeconomics.com/china/currency - http://www.chinamoney.com.cn/english/hombtbrrthdt/ - https://wise.com/us/currency-converter/usd-to-cny-rate/history - https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CNY%3DX/history/ - https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/USD-CNY-spot-exchange-rates-history-2026.html ### 基金公告申购状态费率经理变化 (search) **查询**: `截至 2026-06-23，基金代码：000311, 050025, 000478 基金公告 申购状态 费率调整 基金经理变更 分红` **内容摘要**: **截至2026-06-23（数据主要来自天天基金网/东方财富、基金公司官网、新浪财经、汇丰基金等渠道），三只基金的概要如下（信息基于公开披露，动态变化请以官方最新公告为准）。**[[1]](https://fundf10.eastmoney.com/000311.html)[[2]](http://fundf10.eastmoney.com/050025.html)[[3]](http://fundf10.eastmoney.com/000478.html) ### 1. 000311 — 景顺长城沪深300指数增强A（指数型-股票，跟踪沪深300增强） - **申购状态**：开放申购、开放赎回（支持定投）。部分平台最低起购金额较低（如1元或10元）。[[4]](http://stock.finance.sina.com.cn/fundInfo/view/FundInfo_CWZB.php?symbol=000311) - **费率调整**：无近期重大费率调整。管理费1.00%/年，托管费0.20%/年。最高申购费1.20%（天天基金等平台优惠后约0.12%），赎回费视持有期而定（... **来源URL**: - https://fundf10.eastmoney.com/000311.html - http://fundf10.eastmoney.com/050025.html - http://fundf10.eastmoney.com/000478.html - http://stock.finance.sina.com.cn/fundInfo/view/FundInfo_CWZB.php?symbol=000311 - http://fundf10.eastmoney.com/jjfl_000311.html

已抓取验证页面

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证据目录

- /tmp/smart-search-evidence/fund-dca-2026-06-23-20260623-175943

使用方式

- 将本研究报告作为三维综合分析的「维度③ 定性判断」输入。 - 只把已 fetch 页面支持的事实写成确定表述；未 fetch 的来源只能作为候选线索。 - 定性信息只调整风险提示、暂停/观察理由和预算倾斜，不应覆盖净值回测的证据。

📌 数据和模型限制

生成时间：2026-06-23 09:47:16 UTC  |  Hermes Agent · 支付宝基金定投三维分析